A look at the competition for the 2016 district chairperson race shows opposition candidates in a commanding position in Wakiso, the most populous district, Kampala and also in Gulu.
However, the candidates fronted by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) are dominating in almost half of the 43 districts that the latest opinion poll by Vision Group surveyed.
The survey, which the New Vision research team conducted in December last year, covering 6,720 households countrywide, also shows that in 13 of the 43 districts sampled, and the dominant opposition political parties did not field any candidate, a trend that left the NRM to compete with independents or have candidates go through unopposed.
According to the survey, the opposition parties did not field candidates for district chairpersons in Kayunga, Ssembabule, Jinja, Kamuli, Mbale, Bulambuli, Kanungu and Kamwenge. Of the 43 districts sampled, in the districts of Mbarara, Nakaseke, Kabarole, Ibanda and Kabale, the NRM candidates went through unopposed. These are Bamuturaki Tumusiime (Mbarara), Ignatius Koomu (Nakaseke), Richard Rwabuhinga (Kabarole), Melichiadis Kajwengye (Ibanda) and Patrick Keihwa Besigye (Kabale).
In total, out of the 112 districts in the country, NRM registered 12 district chairpersons unopposed when the Electoral Commission closed the nominations. Citizens of voting age in 672 villages were sampled by the New Vision research team and randomly asked a question: “If elections were held today, who, among the LC5 district candidates you are aware of, would you vote for?”
Opposition stronghold
According to the poll, the opposition district chairperson candidates are in clear lead in Wakiso, Gulu and Kampala. In Wakiso, the incumbent Matia Lwanga Bwanika is leading with 36%, and NRM’s Jonah Nsubuga is at 13%.
Bwanika and Nsubuga first faced off in the 2011 elections and the former prevailed. The incumbent in Gulu, Martin Ojara Mapenduzi, got 89%, while the NRM candidate Billy Graham Olanya got 2%. Mapenduzi has for past two years been scored the best district chairperson. The New Vision poll also presents a tight competition in Iganga district, where FDC’s Baker Basalirwa tied with NRM’s Shaban Nkuutu at 26%.
Independent candidate Patrick Kayemba got 14%. In Kampala, independent candidate, Erias Lukwago, a vocal Opposition figure, is in the lead in the race for the Lord mayorship with 26%, while the NRM candidate, who is also a popular musician, Daniel Kazibwe aka Ragga Dee, scored 16%. Democratic Party’s (DP) Isa Kikungwe registered 2%.
However, 19% of the respondents were undecided. Kikungwe is the outgoing MP for Kyadondo South (now part of Makindye Ssabagabo Municipality) in Wakiso district and is a new entrant in Kampala politics. Lukwago, a member of DP, opted to contest as an independent again, like he did in 2011, due to internal disagreements in his party.
NRM dominates
The survey also provides a wider glimpse into the district chairpersons’ race, projecting huge margins for several NRM candidates. In Luwero district, NRM’s Ronald Ndawula is leading with 63%.
Independent candidate Charles Sebyala got 12%, while Ali Ndaula Ssekyanzi, another independent, registered 6%.The other contenders include Forum for Democratic Change’s (FDC) Absolom Bwanika Bbaale, a former parliamentarian, who got 3% and DP’s Erasto Kibirango registered 2%.NRM’s Sazir Mayanja Nsubuga, a former parliamentarian, is also leading in Kayunga district with 32%.
Independent candidates Mulondo Muwanga and NRM candidates cannot do well in Kampala because the poor who live in the city have had less to count in the last five years.” Sebaggala William Sserwanga got 14% and 3% respectively. A third of the respondents did not know any of the candidates, while 18% were undecided.
In Ssembabule, NRM’s Dr. Elly Muhumuza leads with 68%. Mukono’s new entrant Andrew Senyonga, who is standing on the NRM ticket, is also leading with 36%.Masaka also registered a similar trend where NRM’s Joseph Kalungi leads with 57%.
Kalungi is followed by DP’s Jude Mbabaali at 8%.The Lwengo chairperson, George Mutabaazi, is also leading with 73% while in Mpigi district, the former Mawokota South MP, Claver Peter Mutuluuza, who is standing on the NRM ticket, is leading with 77%. Matia Mugenyi, an independent, comes second with 13%, while DP’s Fred Male got 7%.
In Mubende district, NRM’s Francis Amoti Kibuuka registered 83%. Omar Bongo Muwaya, the NRM candidate in Mayuge district, is also leading with 81%.In Kamuli district, NRM’s Thomas Kategere leads with 53%, while in Bulambuli district Simon Peter Wonaizufu leads with 79%.
Anthony Albert Ejoku, the NRM candidate for Kaberamaido district, got 71%, while Joseph Opit Okojo, the NRM fl ag-bearer in Serere district, got 83%.Perhaps the highest margin in the survey, former MP George Michael Egunyu, is leading with 93% in Soroti district. In Arua district, NRM’s Sam Nyakua Wadri is leading with 75%.
Independents leading
However, there is also a noticeable trend of independents taking the lead in the district chairperson race. For instance in Budaka district, Arthur Waako Mboizi is leading with 55%. The NRM candidate in Budaka district Samuel Muloni got 38%.
In Tororo district, Emmanuel Osunna is leading with 35%, while the NRM’s candidate Apollo Ollo Jaramoji is at 29%.The other independent in a commanding position is Ojok Odoch, who is leading in Agago district with 76%.In Kitgum district, independent candidate Luka Nyeko is leading with 40%, while FDC’s Tonny Toolit Oleny got 31%.
The popular and the weak
In Mukono, the NRM chairperson for the district, Twahiri Sebaggala, argues that it was not surprising for Andrew Senyonga to be in the lead, but cautioned that the 36% that their candidate registered, according to the poll, signals that much more work needs to be done.
On the other hand, Godfrey Kiregga Musisi, who scored 1% in the Mukono district race, said he was not surprised by the results because he joined the race late. He, however, insisted that he will register victory because he reportedly has the backing of the former district chairperson Lukoya Mukome, who is contesting for Nakifuma County parliamentary seat on the NRM ticket.
“I have received emissaries from Lukooya that he is behind me and he is campaigning for me,” he said. This, however, was not independently verifi ed by New Vision also it is said Lukooya and Ssenyonga, though belonging to the same party, have hitherto not been the best of friends.
Kiregga also claimed that he is also being supported by the NRM flag-bearer for Mukono Municipality, Fatuma Ndisaba and others in Mukono South and North. He, however, accused some of the top DP leaders in the district whom he did not disclose, of being dishonest.
“When they receive financial support for the party’s candidates, they sit on it,” Kiregga said. “Someone gave me sh500,000 during a recent fundraising and one of the DP leaders in Mukono who received it just pocketed it.”
Kampala
Assessing the chances of Erias Lukwago and other contenders for the Kampala Lord Mayor race, former Kampala Mayor, Nasser Sebaggala explained some of the factors at play. He told New Vision that the masses who were displaced by Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) from the city streets to develop it now see Lukwago as their only saviour.
“On the other hand, NRM candidates cannot do well in Kampala because the poor who live in the city have had less to count in the last five years. For example, they lost their jobs after being evicted by KCCA without being given an option,” Sebaggala said.
He noted that although Kikungwe is a strong politician, in the eyes of the electorate he is viewed more as an MP. Sebaggala reasons that the Kyaddondo South MP is yet to cut his political teeth to position himself as a Lord Mayor of the rowdy Kampala. “If Kikungwe is to fight favourably against Lukwago in this race, he needs to work hard, day and night. Even DP politicians in the divisions have not helped him,” Sebaggala argued.
Wakiso
In Wakiso district, like Kampala, the ruling party is struggling to recapture the district chairperson position from DP. DP’s Bwanika is ahead of NRM’s Jonah Nsubuga. Bwanika said his support is due to his good performance. He argued that all the previous surveys on local government performance have placed Wakiso among the best performing districts in service delivery.
“The issue is that my rivals have nothing to use against me. When I took over that office five years ago, many roads in Wakiso were full of potholes. But even without getting extra funding, the situation has changed and the politicians and civil servants are working in harmony,” Bwanika argued.
Masaka
Although NRM candidate Joseph Kalungi is ahead of rivals in the race with 57%, the DP district chairman Mukasa Mbidde argues that DP’s Jude Mbabaali, who scored 8%, in the poll, will win. Observing that 32% of the voters in Masaka were undecided, according to the poll, Mbidde argued that the New Vision poll results do not reflect what is on the ground to-date.
Iganga
To give a better understanding of the sea-saw competition between NRM’s Shaban Nkuutu and FDC’s Baker Basalirwa in Iganga district, we talked to voters in the area. Dr. David Muwanguzi, a resident in the area, said the support of these candidates will be decided by the performance of their respective parties.
“Come the polling day, do not be surprised if there is no change in local government leadership,” he said. The NRM candidate is the incumbent, and many voters predict that the he will carry the day. “This is a NRM stronghold. It is the reason the ruling party candidate still commands much support from the locals,” Christine Kiwanuka, a resident in the district, said.
Another voter, Zachariah Kabba said: “I think, given the fact that the incumbent is from NRM party and has not done much for the common man, the masses may go for the Opposition candidate. The election date is drawing nearer by the day, so let us fold our hands and wait for the ballot box to decide instead of opinion polls.”
Mpigi
In Mpigi, the emergence of former MP Peter Mutuluuza has complicated the political matrix for rivals, especially DP’s Joseph Male and independents — Frank Kawooya and Mathias Mugenyi. To get the NRM ticket, Mutuluuza defeated Frank Kawooya with a big margin in the NRM party primaries last year.
Jimmy Mayanja, a resident of Kalagala in Mpigi town council and chairperson district NGO Forum, says Mutuluuza’s main asset is the fact that he was an MP for over 15 years, a time that made him gain political experience and also enabled him to form allies in the area. “Mutuuluza is popular, having served well as the MP for 15 years. His record as the MP makes him the more likely winner,” he said.
