POLLS

 

Voters want Kadaga for first woman president

 

The New Vision research team conducted an opinion poll between June 12 and 20, 2015, covering 6,626 households countrywide. It was conducted in order to make an assessment of the general public’s perception of the forthcoming general elections. A New Vision poll shows Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga is the favourite candidate to become Uganda’s first female president, writes Taddeo Bwambale.
 

The Speaker of Parliament, Rebecca Kadaga, would be the most favourite of all female candidates to be president, the latest opinion poll on the forthcoming elections shows.
 

During the survey, each of the respondents was asked to name one person they think should be the woman president.
 

A total of 1,616 respondents answered the question. Kadaga had a 34% vote, far ahead of all the proposed candidates.
 

The First Lady, Janet Museveni, comes second with 6.2%, followed by Uganda Federal Alliance President, Betty Kamya (4.5%) and Kampala Capital City Authority executive director Jennifer Musisi (3.8%).
 

Others on the list were Winnie Byanyima (2.4%), rights activist Miria Matembe (2%) and Kamuli district chairperson, Salaamu Musumba (1.1%).
 

None of the women proposed by the respondents has expressed intention to stand for president next year. However, many of the respondents (24.6%) did not propose a name, while 6% were undecided.
 

Kadaga’s popularity soared after she was elected Speaker of Parliament in 2011 and several people prodded her to stand for president during her countrywide tours. She, however, denied having ambitions.
 

According to the new poll, Kadaga had the highest backing from males (37.1%), compared to female (31.9%) and among voters aged 65 years and above who comprised 41.5%.
 

Her biggest support (41.8%) comes from voters who have some university education, while her least backing (25%) comes from Ugandans with no formal education.
 

Most of those who proposed Kadaga for president are from eastern Uganda, with 84.1% in Jinja, 80.9% in Kamuli and 75% in Kayunga. Her least support is shown to be in Zombo (11.1%) and Ntungamo (20%).
 

Mrs. Museveni was proposed by more females than males and her highest support came from the western region. Most of her backers (40.6%) were from Rukungiri, followed by Kabale (36.4%) and Ntungamo (36%).
 

Both Kamya and Musisi had their highest backing from male voters, compared to females. Kamya’s highest support (36.4%) came from Agago district. Musisi’s highest is in Mubende (23.8%). She has 3.2% in Kampala.
 

Why Kadaga for president?

Most of those who proposed Kadaga (81.3%) for President said she has shown potential as Speaker of Parliament, is capable, courageous, hardworking and outspoken.
 

The same reason is cited for all the other women. Respondents were asked the question: ‘Why do you think this person would be woman president?’
 

A total of 14.3% said Kadaga respects the Constitution, is not corrupt or has shown ability to fight corruption and fights for human rights and integrity. A total of 6.6% of the voters cited the need to have a female president.
 

Another 3.7% said she is a very brilliant woman while 0.2% said they proposed her for President Because she belongs to their tribe.
 

Voters not ready for female president

In the poll, a surprising majority of Ugandans — over 70% of the respondents — say the country is not yet ready for a female President.
 

Respondents were asked the question: ‘In your opinion, is Uganda ready for a woman President?’ Only 28% of respondents gave a ‘Yes’ answer, indicating a small margin of those who favour a female candidate. A small number of respondents (0.4%) either did not give an answer, or were undecided.
 

While most of the male respondents (74.4%) said Uganda was not yet ready to have a female President, a high number of female (69.3%) also backed the assertion.
 

While a majority (76.5%) of those opposed to a female President are in the 55-59 age group, most of those in favour of a female President (30.3%) are relatively younger and in the 35-39 age category.
 

Most of those rejecting a female President (79.6%) have no formal education, yet most (37%) of those who support a female are university graduates.
 

The thought of having a female President is least popular among Ugandans of low social status, where 72.3% are opposed to it, although a high number (66.3%) are among the upper class citizens.
 

The country has never had a female President and the highest political office ever held by a woman has been that of Vice-President, previously held by Dr. Specioza Kazibwe.
 

Kadaga best candidate for Speaker.

In addition to being people’s most favourite to be woman president, Rebecca Kadaga also emerged the favourite candidate for the position of Speaker of Parliament.
 

Respondents were asked the question: ‘Who do you think should be the next Speaker of Parliament?’ A total of 6,398 responded to the question, with 44.8% proposing Kadaga. Kadaga is the fi rst female Speaker in the history of the Parliament in Uganda. Previously, she was Deputy Speaker, a position that she held until 2011 when she was elected Speaker.
 

According to the poll results, the current Deputy Speaker, Jacob Oulanyah, was voted second favourite to be speaker, with 4.7% of the votes.
 

In third position is Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) secretary general Nathan Nandala-Mafabi, with (2.4%), followed by Alice Alaso (1.5%), Betty Nambooze (1.1%) and Odonga Otto (0.9%).
 

A slightly higher number of female voters, compared to males proposed Kadaga for Speaker and her popularity is higher in the older generation (55-59), where 46.1% endorsed her. Much of Kadaga’s support (53.4%) is from the eastern region and least in West Nile, with 12.5%. A significant number of respondents (14.3%) did not name a candidate, while 8.5% were undecided and 0.8% refused to answer.
 

Vice-President Edward Ssekandi and Kasese district Woman MP Winifred Kiiza have 0.8%, while the First Lady, Janet Museveni and Kitgum district Woman MP, Beatrice Anywar have 0.6%.
 

WHY KADAGA?

Of all the reasons respondents gave to endorse Kadaga for Speaker of Parliament, 73.9% said she is capable of addressing their issues to the President, has potential and is experienced or professional. The same reason was given by the majority of respondents who nominated the rest of the candidates for Speaker.
 

Respondents were asked the question: ‘Why do you think this person should be the next speaker of Parliament?
 

A total of 15.4% of the respondents said they endorsed Kadaga because she is corrupt free, truthful, intelligent, courageous, hardworking and confident, while 9.9% said she is vocal, outspoken and articulate. A total of 5% said she is independent-minded, while 4% said she respects the Constitution and 0.7% said she is a policy maker and an implementer.
 

Those who nominated Kadaga because she is a tribe mate were 0.4%, while those who based their decision on party affiliation were (0.2%) and 0.1% said she is patriotic.
 

How the survey was conducted.

The poll was conducted by Vision Group’s research team between June 12 and June 20, covering a sample size of 6,626 households countrywide. Pauline Gato, Vision Group’s research manager said the study was conducted in 43 districts in both rural and urban areas. Based on the 2007/2017 UHDS population projections, Uganda was projected to have 44% of the population aged 18 years and above (eligible voting age). 


This was the characteristic of interest. In other words, the required sample size was calculated according to this proportion. The country was divided into 10 geographical regions of interest and probability proportional to size sampling was used to determine the number of people to be interviewed from each district.
 

Several demographics were taken into consideration that is, in terms of gender, the age group — of which only those 18 and above were interviewed, the education level regardless of whether they are literate or not. 


The margin of error was set at ±5%. In order to calculate the required sample size for the study, the country was divided into 10 subregions. Random selection of respondents at household level was done by the use of the Kish grid method to give everybody an opportunity to be chosen for the interview.
 

If the selected respondent was available, the interview was then considered successful and the interview was conducted. Otherwise, if the selected respondent was not at home call-backs were made and if still unavailable or refused, a substitution was made within the same household following the day’s date (up for even date or down for odd date) otherwise the interviewer had to substitute from the next immediate household, but still looking out for a would-be respondent with similar characteristics as the former. 


Households were selected using the left hand rule, which required interviewers to skip four households after every successful household targeting the fifth (5) household on the left. It was also a requirement for a potential respondent to have lived in that area for a period of two or more years.
 

The Vision Group research department has long experience in carrying out market research and opinion polling.
 

Readers react to Vision poll

Veronica Tino, Soroti

Museveni has a lot of support from the people due to the stability they are enjoying, even me I will vote for him because I can move in Uganda freely and do my business without any interference

Moses Wanda Kisamba.

Busamaga Ward, Mbale town I know the President is still popular but the 71 percent given to him by the opinion poll is to high. I think the percentage stands at not more than 55 and as the 2016 election fever picks up, Museveni’s support is likely to drop. If Kizza Besigye (FDC) is nominated to run, there is likely to be a re-run of presidential elections.

Tom Okilan, Soroti

I disagree with that poll because Soroti Municipality is for FDC. How then can he beat Besigye from here? Museveni may be popular but he can’t get 71.7% as they claim. For me I put him below average.

Betty Aol-Ocan, Gulu Woman MP

The poll overrates the incumbent, President Yoweri Museveni. I don’t think that Museveni should be portrayed with up to 71.7%. It is really wild to have this kind of result in any democratically held election.

Samson Lokutae, Moroto

I put Museveni at 80% going by the new trend of polling in the Karamoja region. Government interventions through programmes for the youth, road construction and cattle restocking have given Museveni support if we were to vote today.

Isaac Opolot, Soroti

It’s true that Museveni is popular but he can’t score 71.7% as the survey claims. Museveni’s support was high in 1996, but from that time onwards, his support has declined. I foresee Uganda headed for a re-run come 2016.

Rose Adero Looki, Moroto

It is too early to give Museveni 71%. We need look at the primaries as the deciding factor. Currently, there is no stability; while the elders support the Movement, the youth are split among FDC, UPC and DP. They seem not to be decided on the next step ahead. Commercialisation of politics is a bad practice that has since emerged.

Denis Mere, Kamuli

The poll was biased. President Museveni cannot poll 71%. At least FDC’s Kizza Besigye would come in the fi rst position. His recent tour in various districts shows that he has support and we are following him. Though President Museveni leads in the villages, his NRM camp has internal wrangles. I would put Museveni at 55%.

Moses Kyalo, Kamuli

What do you expect? The New Vision is a government newspaper. What else did you expect them to publish? Museveni getting 40%

Shaban Asadhawaire, Kamuli

It is a wrong perception. Museveni has not even got 45%. It is politics as usual now being channeled through the media.

Julie Kintu, Jinja

I disagree with the polls. The former Premier Amama Mbabazi is more popular than President Yoweri Museveni. Mbabazi is on top because he is popular. People are tired of Museveni and need change. Mbabazi is rated highly and Besigye comes second then President Museveni follows. I would put Mbabazi at 40%, Besigye at 38% and President Museveni follows.

Sarah Kahumuza Akiiki- Fort Portal

I believe the opinion polls have given us a clear picture of what will happen after elections. However, I think Museveni will go up to 80%. He is still popular and has done a lot of things for this country to get that percentage. Besigye and others will remain with that average.

Francis Byamukama, Fort Portal

This election is not easy to predict. But it is good to get a picture of what people think. I don’t think if we went into voting today, Besigye would top Mbabazi. Mbabazi would be tight with Museveni. But Museveni would win. He is still our favourite man.

Peruth Nantono, Kamuli

Museveni has accomplished much by constructing roads, schools and extending electricity around the country. So, right now he is harvesting what he sowed over the years. Those who doubt the polls will see the percentage even going higher



Political leaders react to Vision poll.

By Umaru Kashaka

Opposition leaders, political analysts and the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) yesterday gave mixed reactions to an opinion poll by Vision Group research team that showed 71.7% would vote for President Yoweri Museveni in 2016 presidential elections.
 

According to the poll conducted from June 12-20, 71.7% of 6,580 respondents, said their favourite candidate was Museveni when asked: “Which presidential candidate will you most likely vote for next year?”
 

Former Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) president Kizza Besigye came second with 9.2%, while former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi was third with 4.2% of the poll results. Opposition leaders from FDC, Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP) criticised the polls.
 

However, analysts said they were not surprised by the poll results saying Museveni “has name recognition”.
 

The leader of Opposition, Wafula Oguttu, said: “I respect polls done scientifi cally, but yours is not a real poll.” DP president Norbert Mao said: “I don’t think your poll is independent enough to be taken seriously. We are going to the polls and results will come from the people. New Vision is trying to make Museveni happy because he is under stress.” Mao argued that he could not have obtained only 1.3% because his support is increasing.
 

Former Vice-President, Prof. Gilbert Bukenya, who polled 0.5% said: “I don’t know your methodology, but for me who is on the ground I can say Museveni’s percentage was inflated. He would genuinely get about 50%.”
 

Bukenya added: “But if your poll was correct, then my rate is low. But it doesn’t matter it’s going to rise very rapidly.” Prof. Venansius Baryamureeba said: “I don’t agree with the poll because the methodology is faulty. Your poll contains politicians like Rebecca Kadaga who have not expressed interest in the seat. What will happen to their votes in the survey?” He added: “You would have got actual results if you had given the respondents the list with the names of those that have expressed interest.”
 

Dr Benjamin Alipanga, Mbabazi’s campaign spokesperson, said: “The result is not surprising and Museveni should have had even 100% because he has been moving around the country campaigning.
 

The 4.1% is good for Mbabazi considering that he had not yet announced that he would stand for presidency and has not yet started consulting voters.” UPC vice-president Joseph Bossa said: “That study was conducted six months to the polls, which is a long time. People can change their minds.”
 

However, NRM deputy secretary general Richard Todwong said they expected more than 71.7% for Museveni.
 

“We expected more than that because of massive development in infrastructure such as roads, water and electricity. Two, Uganda is peaceful and that can make you understand why we are leading,” he said.
 

Prof Sabiti Makara, a political science lecturer at Makerere University, said: “Of course, Museveni is fairly popular because he is in touch with the population and this gives him an edge over others who lack the opportunity of the incumbency.”
 

Dr. Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a researcher, argues that Museveni “is more predictable to win than any other person because his party is organized and has all the resources”.
 

“It does not surprise me because Museveni is well-known across the country. He has been in so many elections and I think it’s difficult for somebody to envisage who will defeat him for all kinds of reasons,” he said.




DP hints at boycotting 2016 elections over reforms.

By Henry Sekanjako

The Democratic Party (DP) has said they will shun the 2016 elections if Parliament does not consider proposed reforms presented by the Opposition, such as disbandment of the Electoral Commission.
 

According to DP’s publicist, Kenneth Kakande, DP is not ready to take part in an election which he referred to as pre-determined. “We are not going to participate in a predetermined election. An election that is going to crown Museveni as the king. 2016 elections should be free and fair. Without this, we are not ready to take part,” said Kakande.
 

Kakande, who was yesterday addressing journalists at the party headquarters in Kampala, said unless efforts are made to ensure a free and fair electoral process, DP would consult with opposition parties to consider avoiding the elections. DP expressed disappointment in the report by the Parliament’s legal committee regarding the constitutional amendment Bill, which they said undermined the public’s views on an independent electoral commission.
 

“We gathered views from the public and forwarded them to Parliament, but what the committee decided was to undermine these views by Ugandans,” he added.
 

On Monday, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) also attacked Parliament’s committee on parliamentary affairs for reportedly ignoring key election reforms proposed by the opposition in the Constitution Amendment Bill 2015.
 

The Opposition proposed that the Electoral Commission be disbanded and a new body, called the Independent Electoral Commission, replaces it. However, in its report, the committee only recommended that only the name be changed to Independent Electoral Commission.
 

Kakande also announced that the newly mandated party leadership is set to embark on a nationwide campaign to building the party structures at the grassroots ahead of the 2016 general elections.
 

Over the weekend, the DP faction led by Norbert Mao held its national delegates conference at Katomi Kingdom Resort Hotel in Wakiso district and elected new party leadership with Mao bouncing back as the party president.
 

Currently DP, which is one of Uganda’s oldest political parties, is battling divisions with some of its members led by embattled Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago accusing the current party president Mao for manipulating the process to DP publicist Kakande retain the DP presidency.
 

 

 



Mbabazi nomination hangs in balance.

By Moses Mulondo

Former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi’s nomination for the positions of NRM chairman and presidential flag-bearer hangs in the balance as there seems to be no agreement between him and the party with only two days to the July 31 deadline for aspirants to register.
 

Mbabazi’s spokesperson Josephine Mayanja-Nkangi told New Vision yesterday that Mbabazi will not pick the forms if the nomination rules are not revised. “He will not participate in something which is unconstitutional and curtails his freedom,” she said. Asked about Mbabazi’s next course of action, Nkangi said: “He has written a letter containing his concerns to the party’s central executive committee (CEC). He is waiting for CEC to respond.”
 

On when Mbabazi plans to resume his countrywide consultations which he halted when his elder brother Enock Bahemurwabusha died, Nkangi said: “All those are dependent on the response of CEC.”
 

In his letter to CEC, Mbabazi expressed shock that many manoeuvres are being superintended by the party leaders to undermine democracy in the party and arm-twist heads of state organs like the Police and the Electoral Commission to violate the rights of people competing against President Yoweri Museveni.
 

Citing lopsided arrests of his supporters, impounding of his campaign materials, preventing him from going to Mbale, what he calls unconstitutional nomination rules, exorbitant nomination fees, abuse of laws and the Electoral Commission failing to give him the green light for his consultations, Mbabazi blames the NRM leadership for contravening democratic principles. “Either the leadership of NRM has become ignorant of the laws of the land or the leadership has become a law unto itself having decided to abandon the core values of NRM. I will continue to embody the true purpose of the National Resistance Movement. I will remain steadfast to our principles even if I stand alone.
 

Those who wish to veer off are free to do so, but I will not be going with them,” Mbabazi argued. NRM spokesperson Mary Karooro Okurut said: “Nobody stops him from waiting. Let him keep on waiting. I don’t know when CEC will meet again.”

 

 

 

 

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